“Increasing the effectiveness of the individual’s use of his basic capabilities is a problem in redesigning the changeable parts of a system. The system is actively engaged in the continuous processes (among others) of developing comprehension within the individual and of solving problems; both processes are subject to human motivation, purpose, and will. To redesign the system’s capability for performing these processes means redesigning all or part of the repertoire hierarchy. To redesign a structure, we must learn as much as we can of what is known about the basic materials and components as they are utilized within the structure; beyond that, we must learn how to view, to measure, to analyze, and to evaluate in terms of the functional whole and its purpose. In this particular case, no existing analytic theory is by itself adequate for the purpose of analyzing and evaluating over-all system performance; pursuit of an improved system thus demands the use of experimental methods.”
This article was written in 1962 which was after computer was invented. When we first invented computer, every one thinks it’s just a big calculator. After year by year, it has more and more functions. The author was predicting what computer will be in the future. He is basically saying that computer will no long work for human but work with human.
The first computer I played with is like the picture below. I still remember the USB for that time is a disk. You wrote what you have on the disk to remind you what you saved.
What are we having now contemporarily? Air Mac, MacBook Pro, iPad, hard drive, google drive, etc. We don’t need a disk now, not even a USB, google drive can solve all these problems. There are all kinds of computer. I think all those digital medias are considered as computer as well. Our cell phone is also a mini computer. It’s everywhere in daily life. The reason I chose that passage is because I think he is right but not absolutely. He predicted future computer and human intellect all in a good way, but he didn’t think of negative effects. For instance, the influence on artificial intelligence. When I talk about artificial intelligence, the first thing I would think of is robot. People start to worry about the robot will take over the world. Stephen Hawking said: “Computers will overtake humans with AI at some within the next 100 years. When that happens, we need to make sure the computers have goals aligned with ours” (http://www.computerworld.com/article/2922442/robotics/stephen-hawking-fears-robots-could-take-over-in-100-years.html) He didn’t say it randomly. That is what happening. In my opinion, I don’t think computer will take over the world because human are able to create it and at the same time human are also be able to destroy it. However, there is one thing I am worry about is that we rely on computer too much. As much as we can’t even live without it. I need a computer to post this blog. The country needs computer to secure the arms. The world needs computer to communicate with others. I think that’s what hawking means “overtake humans”. The reason why human can predict things is because we are experiencing things and we think critically. Maybe after 100 years, our descendants will listen Hawking’s lecture, post a blog on the transparent screen and saying he is right.